What should we expect from the renewed Obama’s team policy in the South Caucasus? Will this policy remain the same or there will be some changes? It seems that the South Caucasus with domestic problems is not in the priority lists of American foreign policy?

I doubt that there will be any vigorous US policy in the South Caucasus in the near future. However, conflicts south of the region could spark increased focus on the region. Most important among these are the growing threats of jihadism and general instability in Syria, Iraq, and Iran, which could prompt Washington to seek partial solutions to these challenges by partnering more with Azerbaijan.

There is Azerbaijan in general and there is the Tbilisi-Baku-Ceyhan pipeline which needs protecting and could become a target for Sunni-oriented jihadists from the north and/or south. One needs only to recall the Caucasus Emirate’s plot foiled last year and to consider the rising rise of Sunni-oriented jihadism and Islamism in Syria and elsewhere to Azerbaijan’s south to understand the threat.

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